TRITICALE FORECAST MODEL OF THE YIELD AND ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF A DIFFERENT METOOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Bogdan Bonchev

Abstract


The delay in the development of triticale at the time of hail and the later full maturity proved decisive for less damage and partial recovery. The negative correlation of mass of plants at Heading-Anthesis and the negative correlation of the number of productive tillers/m2 indicated that high biomass had a negative effect of the yield pattern. The triticale cultivars Tulus, Gamma 05209, Kolorit, AD 7291, line BGR 30815 suffered less damage from the hail, obtaining a grain yield of more than 400 kg/da and having the unstandardized predicted value from -7.1% to 11.7% compared to the actual yield. Prospective line BGR 31373 yielded 20.3% above the unstandardized predicted yield value under these conditions. The yield in triticale for the period 2019/20-2021/22 is formed by the number of productive tillers/m2 with a low but proven negative direct effect and a positive direct effect on the weight of the grains of the spike, and an increased harvest index. The harvest index has a lower indirect effect. The largest positive total indirect and indirect path effect is the number of grains per spike, relative to the weight of grains per spike, relative to grain yield. Weight of thousand kernels had a positive overall indirect effect and a positive correlation with grain yield.

Keywords


yield elements, regression model, direct and indirect effect, meteorologic conditions

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References


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